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Navigating Oil Markets Amid Geopolitical Stir

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Navigating Oil Markets Amid Geopolitical Stir


In the world of oil markets, where every shift in geopolitics sends ripples, our recent journey has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. Join us as we unravel the key events and their impact on the ever-evolving landscape.


West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures took center stage, waltzing within a modestly tight range. An impressive display of resilience, the market not only withstood various pressures but also managed to secure a modest gain.


What's on the Radar?


  • Middle East Tensions: Recent developments, including strikes between Pakistan and Iran, added a layer of tension. While global oil supplies haven't been significantly disrupted, increased shipping costs hint at potential market implications.

  • US Production: From North Dakota's output reductions to the U.S. hitting a production peak of 13.3 million barrels per day, the domestic oil industry faces variable challenges, showcasing the industry's dynamic nature.

  • EIA Insights: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported unexpected drops in U.S. crude inventories, reflecting robust refinery demand. However, increased gasoline and distillate inventories suggest a nuanced outlook for the sector.

  • OPEC vs. IEA: Differing forecasts between OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) on global oil demand growth hint at uncertainties in the long-term consumption trend. OPEC remains optimistic, while the IEA takes a more cautious stance.

  • China's Role: As a major player, China's economic slowdown raises questions about future oil consumption. However, proactive crude oil purchases by Chinese refiners signal a hopeful anticipation of increased demand later in 2024.

  • Fed, Interest Rates, US Dollar: The intricate dance between the U.S. dollar, Federal Reserve policies, and oil prices remains a key factor influencing market dynamics.



WTI's Choreography on the Charts


The Dance of Trends:


  • The main trend leans downward since mid-November, with potential targets at $63.00.

  • Minor trend also tilts down, awaiting a potential shift.

  • Upside momentum could be sparked by breaching $86.68, reaffirming an uptrend.

Retracement Zones:


  • Major support resides at $64.52 to $58.46, a long-term value zone.

  • Additional support at $65.83 to $60.09.

  • Potential upside target at $76.57 to $79.77.

Reversal Bottom Pattern:


  • A closing price reversal bottom on the weekly chart since mid-December underpins prices.

What Lies Ahead?


Key Factors:


  • Middle East Tensions: Potential disruptions in key transit points may impact global supply.

  • US Production Changes: Variable production, especially in North Dakota, adds supply-side uncertainty.

  • Global Demand Shifts: China's economic slowdown and its impact on oil demand remain in focus.

  • Economic and Policy Factors: Federal Reserve decisions and U.S. dollar strength could sway oil demand.


Energy ahead promises a market sensitive to geopolitical events, production shifts, and major economic decisions.


As traders brace for potential volatility, the charts hint at a potential breakout level, signaling both a countertrend rally and a trigger for downside acceleration. 



To your trading success,

Anthony Speciale

Big Energy Profits


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