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S&P 500 Analysis for Thursday: April 11, 2024


Hey Trader,


Find Strength in Seeking Guidance


In the fast-paced world of trading, it's easy to feel overwhelmed by the constant fluctuations and uncertainties in the market. However, amidst the chaos, finding guidance and strength can make all the difference in your journey towards success.


As we reflect on the words from 2 Chronicles 15:2b, "The Lord is with you when you are with him. If you seek him, he will be found by you, but if you forsake him, he will forsake you." we're reminded of the power of seeking guidance from a higher source.


Just as the verse suggests, when we align ourselves with the Lord and seek His wisdom, we can find solace and direction even in the most challenging of times.


In your trading journey, remember that you are not alone. The Lord is with you every step of the way, ready to offer His guidance and support. By seeking Him earnestly, you open yourself up to a wealth of insights and opportunities that can help navigate the complexities of the market.


Let us not forget the importance of staying connected with our faith, especially during times of uncertainty. As you embark on your trading endeavors, may you find strength and clarity in the knowledge that the Lord is always by your side, ready to guide you towards success. Wishing you wisdom and prosperity in your trading endeavors!


Be Relentless In Pursuit Of The Will 

Which God Has Set Upon Your Heart,

Anthony Speciale



Inflation Accelerates, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shift


The latest inflation data has hit the market with unexpected force, reshaping expectations and signaling potential shifts in monetary policy. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in March, surpassing expectations and bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.5%.


Here are the key takeaways from the report:


Inflation Acceleration: The CPI accelerated at a faster pace than anticipated, driven by increases in shelter and energy costs. Energy prices rose by 1.1% in March, while shelter costs increased by 0.4% on the month and 5.7% from a year ago.

Market Reaction: Following the report, stock market futures declined, and Treasury yields spiked higher. Traders are recalibrating their expectations in response to the unexpected inflationary pressure.


Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Prior to the release, markets anticipated the possibility of rate cuts as early as June. However, the latest data has shifted expectations, with traders now pricing in the first rate cut to occur in September, according to CME Group calculations.

Fed Caution: Despite inflationary concerns, Fed officials have expressed caution about the near-term direction for monetary policy. Some officials have even suggested that rate increases may be necessary if inflationary pressures persist.

Market Outlook: With inflation proving stickier than expected, the Fed's approach to monetary policy remains uncertain. Traders will be closely watching for insights from the Fed's March meeting minutes, set to be released later today.


As we navigate through these developments, it's essential to stay informed and adaptable in response to evolving market conditions . . .


Here's to informed trading and steady navigation in the face of market uncertainties.



S&P 500 Analysis for Thursday: April 11, 2024


As we approach Thursday's trading session, it's essential to highlight key levels and potential price movements to navigate the market effectively.


Here's a breakdown of the technical analysis for tomorrow:


Support Levels:


  • 5214.50: Expect buying pressure to be contained below this level throughout the week and into the following week. If breached, our focus shifts to the narrowing region between 5019.00 and 5059.50, which could become the objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.

  • 5157.75: Look for intraday weakness to be contained above this level. A break below may lead to a decline towards 5123.50, where the market could find support and establish a daily low.



Bearish Scenario:


  • Below 5123.50: A close below this level today could signal a move towards the targeted 5059.50 within several days. This marks the beginning of a narrowing range of support, extending down to 5019.00, capable of absorbing selling pressure through May and potentially the remainder of the year.


Resistance Levels:


  • Above 5214.50: A push or opening above this level could pave the way for further upside towards 5273.50, possibly reaching 5301.50 intraday while maintaining session strength.

  • Settlement above 5214.50: This would keep the target of 5428.00 within reach over the next 2-3 weeks. A settlement above 5301.50 could accelerate the move towards 5428.00 by the end of next week.


As traders, it's crucial to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market dynamics. Understanding these key levels can help inform your trading decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities. Stay tuned for further updates, analysis and insights!


Happy Trading,

Speciale Analysis

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