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S&P 500 Retail Analysis, Commentary and Insights for Monday: May 13, 2024

Speciale Analysis

Hey Trader,

Finding Strength in Faith

I hope this email finds you well and in good spirits. Today, I wanted to share a powerful verse from the Bible that I believe holds special relevance for retail traders like yourself:

2 Thessalonians 3:3 - "But the Lord is faithful. He will establish you and guard you against the evil one."

In the dynamic and often unpredictable world of trading, it's easy to feel overwhelmed by the challenges and uncertainties that come our way.

However, amidst the volatility and stress, it's essential to remember that we are not alone. We have a source of unwavering strength and protection in our faith.

This verse serves as a reminder that no matter what obstacles or adversities we may face in our trading journey, we can take refuge in the faithfulness of the Lord. He is our constant anchor, ready to establish us and shield us from the schemes of the enemy.

So, as you navigate the ups and downs of the market, I encourage you to hold fast to your faith. Trust in the Lord's promise to guide and protect you, knowing that He is always by your side.

May this verse inspire and uplift you as you continue to pursue your trading goals with courage and conviction. Wishing you blessings and success in all your life's endeavors!

Be Relentless In Pursuit Of The Will 

Which God Has Set Upon Your Heart,

Anthony Speciale


Consumer Sentiment Plummets Amid Rising Inflation Concerns

In a stark divergence from the otherwise robust economic signals, consumer sentiment took a nosedive as inflation expectations surged, according to the latest findings from a highly anticipated survey released on Friday.

The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May recorded an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, a significant drop from April's figure of 77.2 and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 76. This marked a monthly decline of 12.7%, albeit with a year-over-year increase of 14.2%.

Accompanying the decline in sentiment, inflation expectations for both the one-year and five-year horizons saw an uptick.

The one-year inflation outlook soared to 3.5%, climbing 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to its highest level since November.

Similarly, the five-year outlook edged up to 3.1%, a modest increase of 0.1 percentage point but reversing a trend of declining readings observed over the past few months, also reaching its highest level since November.

“While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions,” noted Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. “They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment, and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead.”

Other components of the survey witnessed notable declines as well: the current conditions index dropped to 68.8, declining by over 10 points, while the expectations measure fell to 66.5, down by 9.5 points. Both indices recorded monthly drops of more than 12%, though they showed year-over-year increases.

The report's release comes despite a strong stock market rally and a slight decrease in gasoline prices, though they remain elevated. Most indicators in the labor market continue to signal strength, although jobless claims hit their highest level since late August last week.

“Uncertainty about the inflation path could suppress consumer spending in the coming months. The Fed is walking a tightrope as they balance both mandates of price stability and growth,” remarked Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “Although it’s not our base case, we do see rising risks of stagflation, a concern the markets will have to deal with, in addition to the impacts from the presidential election.”

The inflation readings pose a significant challenge for policymakers, especially as the Federal Reserve weighs its near-term monetary policy decisions.

Market expectations suggest a strong anticipation that the Fed will commence reducing its key borrowing rate in September after maintaining it at its highest level in over two decades since July 2023. However, the outlook remains uncertain, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that the central bank’s next move is unlikely to be a hike.

The next crucial data release on inflation is slated for Wednesday when the Labor Department publishes its consumer price index report for April. While most Wall Street economists anticipate a slight moderation in price pressures, the widely followed CPI index has consistently surpassed the Fed’s target, registering at 3.5% annually in March.

S&P 500 Chart Analysis

S&P 500 Retail Analysis for Monday: May 13, 2024

Let's break down some important numbers for you to keep an eye . . .

If we see the market falling towards 5235.00, there's a good chance of support being found and price could then rally towards 5333.00. Potentially continuing to rise from there if strong enough resistance isn't found over the next several weeks.

But if the market goes down and closes below 5220.00, it could mean that the selling pressure might be ramping up, and we might start seeing things get worse. Perhaps even see it go down to 5115.00 in the next several week, and maybe even beyond that.

CLICK HERE For Professional Analysis Reports - Including: Intraday Trading Levels, Short & Long Term Expectations, Full Write-Ups and Chart Images ... Delivered Daily

So, keep an eye on these numbers, and let's see where the market takes us!

Happy Trading,

Speciale Analysis

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