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S&P 500's Astonishing Run Sets the Stage for Tactical Opportunities


S&P 500's Astonishing Run Sets the Stage for Tactical Opportunities

In the intricate world of trading, the S&P 500 index has accomplished a remarkable feat with nine consecutive weekly gains—a streak not witnessed since 2004. 

As the new year unfolds, this exceptional performance has propelled the index into what technical analysts term "overbought" territory.

A closer look reveals that a record share of S&P 500 stocks trailed the index in 2023, marking it as the 'weirdest bull market in decades.

While common wisdom might anticipate a near-term pause in the S&P 500 rally due to overbought conditions, seasoned analysts like Jeff deGraaf, Chairman and Head of Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Research, see this as a positive indicator for future returns. 

In a recent note, he emphasized that such occurrences typically confirm momentum and signal a continued trend, rather than posing a liability.

Delving into technical analysis, an asset labeled as overbought is considered overvalued, potentially rising too rapidly. 

Indicators like the relative strength index gauge the speed and change of price movements, providing insights into these conditions.

However, it's crucial to note that assets can defy conventional expectations, continuing to rise or fall even after entering overbought or oversold territory.

In the context of the S&P 500, deGraaf acknowledges its tactical overbought status, citing metrics such as 10-day advancers, excessive inflows into S&P 500-tracking exchange-traded funds, and the performance of high versus low beta stocks ranking in the 98th percentile. 

While these factors hint at a potential pause, deGraaf recommends seizing the opportunity to strategically build long positions in new names and industries demonstrating robust relative strength.

Closing 2023 with a remarkable 24.4% gain, just 0.6% shy of its record close in January 2022, the S&P 500's trajectory signals a market ripe with tactical opportunities. 

As we navigate the evolving financial landscape, stay tuned for expert insights that decode market intricacies and unveil strategic possibilities.

See you at the top,

Anthony Speciale

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